Om Malik:

Lately there has been a lot of talk of how the foundational models are quickly becoming like every other iPhone release. They are ho-hum, till the next one comes around. But it is not the right analogy. I have a more boring, and more accurate, analogy that will explain the growth so far, and how it will evolve.

I have been fortunate enough to have been involved with the last five cycles of technology. As a result, I have been able to see patterns in the history of technology. It doesn’t matter what the technology is – we go from shock and awe to ho-hum, go-to-work. A technology eventually becomes invisible to us.

This is so counter-intuitive to me.

Om is arguing here that the arc of AI capability is going to be more like that of broadband capacity (which continually but silently increased over the last 30 or so years) and less like CPU or smartphones (where there have been very visible improvements that eventually plateaued out). He is clearly zagging where everyone else is zigging.

Like I said, counter-intuitive. Recommended reading.