Tagged: ai

Benedict Evans:

Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and you can’t measure work like that anyway.

Lots of commentary out there on the impact of AI on jobs, mostly on the lines of “AI will lead to massive job losses” (tch. Dario).

This is a more nuanced take from Evans. It may feel a little unsatisfactory given the crux of the argument is that nobody can predict where this will go (a common theme of much of Evans’ writing), but I strongly believe it’s a very good framework for thinking about this.

Recommended reading. Don’t just take the conclusion, nod, and move on. Developing a deep appreciation for why you should disregard most predictions about AI is important to actually do the said disregarding.

Arnav Gupta:

But the truth is that these layoffs, even if they they are not because AI is replacing you, and even if they are some form of AI-washing. These layoffs are still because of AI. And these layoffs will continue till we learn to use AI. Till we learn to convert AI-tokens into outcomes and not just input. Till we learn to re-align the speed of "alignment" with the new speed of coding. And till we figure out, beyond our 2 good and 8 stupid ideas, 10 more ideas that we can chase with our increased productivity.

This is a very refreshing take on the layoffs in large tech companies. It’s the best take I’ve read on this.

Aparna Dhinakaran:

Someone asked me at a hacker event last week: "Can anyone actually tell me what a harness really is?" It was said with real skepticism. The kind of skepticism that says we all use the word "Harness" in the industry, but nobody actually knows what it is.

Fair question. Let me try.

This is a good post and does the important job of defining a term that is getting used increasingly in the context of AI agents.

Perhaps a good addendum would be to define an agent as something that wraps the harness into an app that users interact with. Claude Code is a harness and a coding agent merged into one. Codex cli is a coding agent that builds on the codex-app-server harness. Cursor is also a harness + coding agent, but they are also experimenting with Claude Code as a harness!

T3Code is a coding agent that demonstrates this difference best: it does not ship with its own harness and can instead use Codex, Claude Code, or OpenCode as harnesses.

One exception I take with the linked post is that not every component that it describes as making up a harness is actually necessary in every harness.

As an obvious example, you could very well build an agent without subagents (if you do want subagents, it would have to come in at the harness level as subagents are exposed as tools to the LLM).

So what are the absolute minimal components in a harness? I think it's just the agentic loop. That includes assembling the system prompt, tool definitions, executing the tool calls & assembling the results, etc.

Context management and compaction is not required (it could live outside the harness). Skills are not required. We already talked about subagents. Built-in prepackaged skills should probably not be there in any harness. Lifecycle hooks are nice to have. Session persistence & recovery is optional. So is a permission & safety layer.

Dave Griffith:

So: where are we? The technology exists and is impressive. The infrastructure buildout is underway and massive. Workflows are being redesigned in early-adopter organizations, often via guesswork. We've got one (1) product area (software development agents) where we're past "early adopter" and moving onto mass-market. Legal frameworks are being written badly by people who have never used the technology, which is traditional. Business models are being discovered by trial and error, also traditional. Fortunes are being made and lost, another time-honored tradition.

The critics who say nothing has changed are measuring at the wrong resolution. The critics who say change should have been instantaneous have a broken model of how change works. The honest answer is: this is going extremely fast, it will often feel slow until suddenly it doesn't, and the people who have built understanding now will not be scrambling in three years.

Amen. Good, entertaining read.

I'm going to refer people to this when they say either that things will not change dramatically or when they say that the dramatic change has already happened (so much more to come).

Soohoon Choi:

I want to argue that AI models will write good code because of economic incentives. Good code is cheaper to generate and maintain. Competition is high between the AI models right now, and the ones that win will help developers ship reliable features fastest, which requires simple, maintainable code. Good code will prevail, not only because we want it to (though we do!), but because economic forces demand it. Markets will not reward slop in coding, in the long-term.

We're still early in the AI coding adoption curve. As the technology and competition matures, economic forces will drive AI models toward generating good, simpler, code because it will be cheaper overall.

Good food for thought. But I think this argument feels a bit of wishful thinking, given no reasonable or even plausible “why” has been offered.

I’m not saying that the models are not going to get good enough and we’re going to have slop forever — if you just trace the slope of improvement over the past year, we would in fact expect the opposite. But nobody knows, or has offered any plausible path for this.

via Simon Willison

Philip Su:

And — you heard it here first — we’ll one day be scared, positively petrified, to use any mission-critical software known to have allowed human interference in its codebase.

Very provocative. Put this way, it does evoke the feeling that we could very well be heading into this future.

Mo Bitar:

What we do is because the deal is so damn good, we change ourselves to make that deal acceptable.

And what I've figured out now is that I'm unwilling to change myself to make that deal acceptable.

I could feel the emotions as I watched the video. Well worth the time.

nilenso:

I spent some time studying the system prompts of coding agent harnesses like Codex CLI and Claude Code. These prompts reveal the priorities, values, and scars of their products. They're only a few pages each and worth reading in full, especially if you use them every day. This approach to understanding such products is more grounded than the vibe-based takes you often see in feeds.

While there are many similarities and differences between them, one of the most commonly perceived differences between Claude Code and Codex CLI is autonomy, and in this post I'll share what I observed. We tend to perceive autonomous behaviour as long-running, independent, or requiring less supervision and guidance. Reading the system prompts, it becomes apparent that the products make very different, and very intentional choices.

Very interesting comparison. But I don't believe the difference in the behaviour is primarily, or even likely, driven by the system prompts. The difference is far more ingrained, most likely RL'd during post-training.

Why do I say this? I've been using both the models in Pi coding agent with its default system prompt¹, which is both really small and the same for all models. And even in Pi, this difference in behaviour comes across clearly.²

Michael Bloch:

I'm more bullish on AI than I've ever been. And that's exactly why I'm bearish on most software companies. Not because their customers will leave, but because their next thirty competitors just got a lot easier to build.

I've seen/heard a bunch of different people quip exactly this. This is one of the crispest articulations. Rings ominous to me.

Simon Willison:

We coined a new term on the Oxide and Friends podcast last month (primary credit to Adam Leventhal) covering the sense of psychological ennui leading into existential dread that many software developers are feeling thanks to the encroachment of generative AI into their field of work.

We're calling it Deep Blue.